概率组合法在辽河防洪能力计算中的应用

Application of Probability Combination Method in Calculation of Flood Prevention Capacity of the Liaohe River

通过风险决策的概率组合法,考虑水文的不确定因素来估算辽河干流福德店段河道的实际防洪能力,能够对其现有防洪能力做初步分析和计算,对防洪能力的计算由简单的频率分析向风险分析发展有实际的理论基础,为流域的防洪规划和管理运行提供更有价值的依据。

This article estimates the actual flood prevention ability of the Fudedian part of the Liaohe River by applying the probability combination method on risk decision - making and also taking the uncertain dements of it hydrology into account. It provides preliminary analysis and computation of its existing flood prevention ability, lays the foundation of computing flood prevention ability by moving from the simple frequency analysis to the risk theory development, and also offers mere valuable evidence for its basin＇s flood prevention plans and management movement.