化工废水排放量灰色预测新方法

A New Grey Prediction Method for the Discharge Quantity of Wastewater from Chemical Industry

对偏离灰指数律的原始时序系统，累加生成不是削弱随机波动性影响的唯一途径，ＧＭ（１，１）模型也不是预测模型的最佳选择。本文介绍了一种新的生成方式──线性生成及一种新的预测模型──ＧＩＭ（１）。某市化工行业废水排放量的预测实例表明，本方法比ＧＭ（１，１）有着更好的预测效果。

For the primitive sequential system deviating from grey index law, accumulative spanning is not the unique way for reducing the effect of randon variation, GM(1,1) model is also not an optimum prediction one. This paper introduces a new spanning way──linear spanning, and a new prediction model──GIM(1).A case of predicting the discharge quantity of wastewater from chemical industry in a city shows that this method has the advantage over GM(1,1) in prediction effect.