柴油机磨损寿命的灰色马尔柯夫模型预测

Prediction of Wear Life-span of Diesel Engine by Gray-Markov Model

本文基于灰色系统理论，将灰色ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型和马尔柯夫预测模型的优点结合起来，形成一个灰色马尔柯夫预测模型，拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。尤其是这种模型的预测结果比其它随机波动性较大数据列的模型的预测结果精确得多。用这种模型对柴油机磨损寿命进行预测的结果令人满意。

Based on the gray system theory, a gray-Markov predicting model has been established by incorporating the advantages from both gray GM(1,1)predicting model and Markov predictingmodel, which can have a broadened application of the gray prediction and . pzrticularly. obtain much more precise results,as compared with other models with data sequences suffering greater random fluctuation. The result of the wear life-span prediction with diesel engine is satisfactory .