贝叶斯公式能否解开临床诊断的谜团

Can Bayes' Formula Help in Difficult Diagnosis?

贝叶斯公式反映验前概率与验后概率的关系。利用该公式可以由诊断试验拟然比和某病的患病率，计算出某患者患该病的可能性。通过１例疑诊嗜铬细胞瘤患者检查结果的分析，演示了贝叶斯公式在临床疑难病例分析中的应用。

Bayes' theorem describes relationship between pre test and post test probability. Likelihood ratio represents potential of information from diagnostic test to confirm or deny a clinical diagnosis, Using a version of Bayes' formula, the possibility that a patient have a disease can be estimated from the likelihood ratios of particular test results and the prevalence rate of the disease under consideration. The usage of Bayes' formula in difficult diagnosis was demonstrated by means of the diseussion of test results in a patient who had been suspected to have pheochromocytoma.