摘要
本文运用协整分析和误差修正模型技术,探讨山东省经济增长与能源消费之间的关系。实证研究结果表明,山东省经济增长与能源消费存在长期均衡关系,并存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系;经济增长与能源消费之间的关系是非线性的,因而不能从能源消费的线性变化推测出经济增长率的变化;山东省经济受电力消费的影响较大,为了在2010年单位地区生产总值能源消耗降低20％的政策目标,山东电力消耗较高的产业必须加以调整。
Applying Engle-Granger cointegration approach combined with the standard Granger causality test on Shandong data for the period 1978-2004, we find that uni-directional causality exists from economic growth to energy consumption. Further, we find that there exists nonlinear relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Shandong, and electricity consumption has a heavy influence on Shandong＇ s economic growth. This means that in order to achieve the policy goal of decreasing energy consumption of per unit GDP by 20% by the year 2010, Shandong province must adjust its heavy electricity consumption sectors.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第22期84-91,共8页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"中国经济增长统计数据可信度的检验研究"(项目批准号:70550001)的阶段性成果。
