基于风险评价的边坡防灾决策分析

Slope Resistant Engineering Decision-making Method Based on Risk Theory

目的进行边坡工程方案风险决策,解决评价过程中人为等不客观影响问题.方法运用安全与经济相平衡的原则,采用可靠度理论与风险评价相结合,考虑边坡工程费用和方案的预期灾害风险损失,采用决策树为手段,以代价最小为判别准则,对边坡方案进行风险决策.结果建立了基于风险评价的边坡风险决策树模型,明确了决策准则,通过算例分析给出工程决策方案.结论以边坡可靠性分析为基础,从经济风险分析的角度出发解决边坡方案评价问题,可在一定程度上消除决策过程中的人为因素影响,使工程决策更加客观科学.

Having some uncertainties, there are many kinds of design plans in even the same slope project. This paper combines reliability theory with risk appraisal method, considering project investment.and anticipating calamity loss of every slope design project, by decision tree model as analyzing means, minimizmg expectant hazard losses as decision-making criterion, carrying on project risk decision-making. The problem of how to assess slop stability with the reliability index can be solve more properly through economical risk analysis based on reliability analysis, in a certain degree can eliminate the human influence in risk evaluate and make decision-making of the design more objective and scientific.