基于马尔可夫过程的高压断路器电子元件可靠性分析

The Reliability Analysis of the Electrical Apparatus of High Voltage Circuit Breaker Based on Markov Process

目的通过对真空断路器的电子元件可靠性研究,提出一种判断高压电器可靠性的方法,为评价和提高高压断路器的可靠性设计提供有效的途径,为设计更高水平的高压电器提供理论支持.方法根据时间变量的现在状态及其变化趋势利用马尔可夫过程,预测在未来某一特定期间内可能出现的状态.结果对元件或系统达到平稳工作状态所需的时间以及平稳工作状态的概率大小进行计算;依据元件达到平稳工作状态所需的时间来确定对元件进行可靠性筛选试验的时间,并通过实际应用加以验证.结论为高压电器运行可靠性的决策提供依据,在选择断路器电子元件时应综合考虑元件的故障率及维修率的大小,对于拓宽高压电器可靠性设计研究具有一定的借鉴意义.

An approach to judge the reliability of high voltage is put forward on the basis of the research of the reliability of vacuum circuit breaker electrical apparatus so that an effective method can be provided to evaluate and better the design of the reliability of high voltage circuit breaker and meanwhile the theory to design more advanced high voltage electrical apparatus is presented. According to time changing at present and its changing tendency, By means of Markov process, will predict the state at the given time in the future. The time for apparatus and system to get into the stable working state （the state ratio will not change） and the ratio of the stable working state will be calculated;the time to have a selective test for the reliability of apparatus parts will be determined according to how long it can get into stable working state and it will be tested through the practical application. It will show some proofs for the decisions of the reliability of high voltage electrical apparatus. The ratio of faults and maintenance should be taken into account comprehensively when selecting the circuit breaker electrical apparatus, and it will take positive effect on the enlarging the sphere of the research and design of the reliability of high voltage electrical apparatus.