基于种群生态学的竞争项目组合风险决策模型

Competitive Project Portfolio Risk Decision-making Model Based on Population Ecology

在回顾了项目组合管理研究之后,将种群生态学理论引入项目组合风险管理。讨论了项目组合的已有研究,重新给出了项目组合的定义,并将其分为三种类型,揭示了项目组合与生物种群间的相似属性。构建了竞争型项目组合风险管理(CPPRM)决策模型,讨论了n=2时模型的解,分析了其稳定性条件及风险应对策略,并以n=3时的讨论论证了CPPRM决策模型的实际可操作性。

The theory of population ecology is introduced into project portfolio risk management, after the researches on project portfolio management are briefly reviewed . The existing researches on project portfolio are discussed, a new definition of is put forward, it is sorted into three classes, and the similar characteristic between project portfolio and biology population is opened up. The competitive project portfolio risk management （CPPRM） decision-making model is founded. Taking n = 2 as an example, the solutions are discussed, their steady qualification is presented, and the response strategy to risk is discussed, and the CPPRM decision-making model is feasible in practice by the discussion to n = 3.