基于Internet与GIS的全球禽流感时空动态分析

Space-Time Dynamic Analysis of Global Avian Influenza Based on Combined Internet and GIS

全球禽流感的爆发具有年际尺度的周期性,且周期缩短、频率加快、危害增强,这种趋势与生态环境恶化有关;2003年以来全球禽流感的年内活动具有明显的季节性,多集中在秋末冬初和冬末春初,季节交替、气温变化剧烈是禽流感的诱发因素;通过对2000年以前和2003年以来禽流感发生地的制图研究,发现全球禽流感集中分布在从西欧、地中海、经西亚到东南亚再到拉丁美洲的弧形环带上,这里海陆交互作用强烈、飞禽和水禽活动集中,人类活动排放的某些化学毒物是病毒变异的诱因;将近年来全球禽流感时空分布与候鸟迁徙路线相比较,发现在亚欧非“世界岛”上的8条路线具有良好的对应关系,候鸟迁徙应是禽流感全球传播的重要途径。

Collecting information with Internet, taking space- time dynamic analysis supported by GIS, this paper analyzes the space - time distribution of the global avian influenza. In recent century the breakout of global avian influenza has the characters of periodicity annual scale, and the tendency of cycle reducing, frequency speeding up and intensity strengthening, so the avian influenza is extrapolated as an infectious disease related with environmental variation. In recent 3 years, the breakout of avian influenza is a seasonal fluctuating as obvlously,and concentrating from the end of fall to the begin of winter and the end of winter to the begin of spring. In this time, the climate and temperature change fiercely and it is an induction factor of avian influenza. The distribution of avian influenza in the global locus in the arc zone, where the sea and the land alternate is almost intense and it is a geographical complex region, it may he implicated that the virus of avian influenza should be existing in the water body likes seas, lakes and swamps, perhaps the humid environment and huge chemicals emission are the causes of avian influenza virus variation. The spacetime distribution of avian influenza in the global for recent 3 years, cooperation with the flyway of migratory bird has been taken, the 8 routes are discovered where （when） the avian influenza breakout is correspondence relations well with the flyway of migratory bird. This may extrapolate that the moving of migratory bird will he an important route of avian influenza diffusion. This is provided beneficial information for the prevention of avian influenza.