长江三角洲土地利用变化与粮食安全分析

Study on the Relationship of Cultivated Land Change and Food Security in Yangtze River Delta

定量描述粮食产量对土地资源波动响应的程度对理解区域土地利用变化与粮食生产关系具有重要意义。分析长江三角洲地区耕地面积变化与粮食生产相关性及耕地质量变化对粮食单产的影响,分析粮食生产对土地利用变化响应的敏感性。结果表明:粮食产出与土地利用变化具有强相关性,耕地质量和数量的变化对粮食生产的影响及粮食安全敏感系数在不同时间段呈规律性变化,且在波动中平衡,耕地数量与质量变化是粮食安全的重要制约因素。

Grain yields depend on cultivated land resource greatly. Decrease of cultivated land area and degradation of cultivated land will become awful because cultivated land will be partly transformed irreversibly into non - agricultural uses in the process of the speedy industrialization and urbanization and economic development which will induce food crisis in region. Realizing analytical results of grain yield change and relationship between grain yield and cultivated land change that base on researching the response of grain yield to cultivated land change mathematically is important. Based on identifying the relationship between cultivated land change and food security in Yangtze River delta, this paper analyses the impact factor of grain productivity and degree of sensitivity of food security. The research result shows the cultivated land and grain productivity are interrelated in different periods strongly. The factors of cultivated land quantity and cultivated land quality change influencing grain productivity are dynamic. The negative impact of land quantity and quality change to the grain productivity is obvious. Ensuring the quantity and quality of cultivated land and optimizing land use structure are effective ways to achieve food security in Yangtze River delta.