海南岛西部土地沙漠化时空模拟及虚拟政策实验

Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Experiment of Policies of Desertification Land in the West of Hainan Island

分析海南岛西部土地沙漠化演变过程及其动力机制，构建沙漠化元胞自动机模型，预测2010年海南岛谣部土地沙漠化状态，进行两种典型的虚拟政策实验。结果表明：1）基于元胞自动机技术建立土地沙漠化防治政策虚拟实验室，可对多方案政策主导下的土地沙漠化时空过程进行有效仿真、预测和可视化表达；2）未来5～10a若仍维持目前的土地开发模式和政策状态，海南岛谣部土地沙漠化将有较明显的扩展倾向，必须实施有利于沙漠化逆转的政策措施。

Changes of climate,environment and human activities are the main factors of land desertification evolvement in Hainan Island, among which, the state policy oriented human activities is the key point of land system evolvement controlling. Cellular Automata Model can supply a good way to describe the self- organization mechanism of land desertification, whose entropy is in a decline tendency. Based on the analysis of evolvement process of land desertification and the dynamic mechanism of western Hainan Island, this paper builds up Cellular Automata Model of land desertification, makes a relevant prediction of the main state of land desertification in western Hainan Island in 2010 and carries through two typical virtual policy experiments. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows： 1） building up virtual laboratory of prevention policy of land desertification which is based on the Cellular Automata Model helps to achieve simulation, prediction and visualization of the spatial- temporal process of land desertification dominated by multi- policy; 2） in the following 5 - 10 years, if the present land using mode and policy state remain the same, land desertification of western Hainan Island will present distinct expanding trend and more effective policies and measures to control land desertification should be executed.