基于SD模型的崇明岛水资源承载力评价与预测

Evaluation and Predication of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on SD Model: A Case Study of Chongming Island

以上海崇明岛为例,运用水资源承载力多幕景系统动力学仿真模型,以不同引水量(本地地表水资源量、现状引水量、10%最大理论引水量、20%最大理论引水量、30%最大理论引水量和50%最大理论引水量)以及不同水资源策略(现状用水策略、节水治污及污水回用策略、产业结构调整策略和综合策略)为幕景,以人口和GDP为表征,动态模拟了水资源对经济社会的承载能力,得出不同水平年崇明岛水资源承载能力;通过动态模拟得出的COD浓度值,分析水环境对经济社会发展的响应;结合崇明岛2010年、2015年和2020年经济社会发展目标,计算崇明岛水资源对经济社会发展目标的承载力指数,得到提高崇明岛水资源承载力的优化策略.

Based on system dynamics model, the water resources carrying capacity of Chongming Island in Shanghai city was discussed. Six scenes of water diversion （local surface water quantity, present water diversion quantity, 10% largest water diversion quantity, 20% largest water diversion quantity, 30% largest water diversion quantity and 50% largest water diversion quantity） as well as four scenes of water resource policies （present water policy, water conservation and recycling policy, industrial structure adjustment policy and integrate policy） were analyzed. The water resources carrying capacity of Chongming Island in different years was simulated, and the population, GDP and COD at different scenes were predicated. Compared with longterm plan of Chongming Island, the water resources carrying capacity indicators were calculated. Finally, the strategy which can promote coordinated development of society, economy and envi ronment was obtained.