预测与假说

Prediction and Hypothesis

科学理论既能解释已知的事件,也能预测未来的事件。预测得到证实是科学理论是否正确的主要标志。但哲学理论却不能产生预测。本文围绕这一区别探讨假说、预测、自明、规律、机制等概念并借以阐明哲学理论和科学的某些深层区别。科学理论以假说的方式提出,推论出某种可预测的现象,反过来靠这一预测是否实现来判明假说是否为真。之所以采取这样迂回的步骤,是因为我们无法直接判明最初提出的理论是真的是假。哲学关心的则是本性使然合乎道理的东西,而不是建构某种假说以合乎某些资料。哲学理论完全是解释性的、理解性的、和预言毫无关系。参照科学理论的建构方式,用预测能力来要求哲学,是从根本上误解了哲学理论的性质。

Scientific theory can both explain the known and predict the future events. The verification of such prediction is the main indicator of the correctness of a given scientific theory. However, philosophical theory cannot produce prediction. This paper centers on this difference in terms of hypothesis, prediction, self-verification, law and mechanism and aims to reveal the intrinsic differences between philosophical theory and science. Scientific theory is proposed through hypothesis and then it relies on such hypothesis to deduce a certain predicable phenomenon. Because we cannot directly assess the correctness of the preliminary theory, we have to take up this roundabout approach. What philosophy focuses is the nature of something rather than to construct a hypothesis for matching some data. Philosophical theory is explanatory and interpretive in nature and has nothing to do with prediction. The understanding of philosophy with the construction of scientific theory and its predictability as the reference is a misunderstanding of the nature of philosophical theory.