泰勒规则在中国的实证检验及拓展

Empirical Test for Taylor's Rule in China and its Extension

文章介绍了泰勒规则,即在产生、内涵、发展的基础上,利用Lawrence模型将汇率因素引入,构建了开放经济条件下的前瞻性泰勒规则。实证结果表明:泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个很好的参照系;相对于物价稳定目标,央行更关注经济增长;将微观主体的预期和汇率因素引入到货币政策时,央行对利率的敏感性增强;继续推动利率和汇率体制改革能更有效地提高泰勒规则的解释力;“前瞻性泰勒规则”能提高中国货币政策的透明度。

This paper introduces the origination, and development of Taylor＇s rule. On this basis, we then construct the anticipatory Taylor＇s rule in an open economy by employing a model from Lawrence （1999）. The empirical analysis indicates that a）Taylor＇ s rule provides us a frame of reference in policy making; b）Central Bank prefer ＂economic growth＂ to ＂price stability＂; c）when considering the effect of public expectation and exchange rate, Central Bank pay more attention to price stability; d）exchange rate and interest rate regime reformation would increase the power of explanation of Taylor＇ s rule; e） the anticipatory Taylor＇ s rule could enhance the transparency of monetary policy.