非正规金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Influence of the Informal Finance Development on Economic Growth

文章利用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验等计量方法分析了我国非正规金融发展和经济增长的关系,同时还讨论了正规金融发展与经济增长的关系。通过实证分析得知:地下经济金融部门净金融投资的发展与经济增长有长期的正向关系,地下货币资金的发展与经济增长具有长期的负向关系,而地下信贷的发展与经济增长的关系并不显著。因此,对于非正规金融收益和危害的判断不能一概而论,应区别对待,引导其健康发展,趋利避害。

This paper analyzed the relation between informal finance development and the economic growth using the co - integration and Granger causality and so on, meanwhile discussed the influence of the formal financial development to the economic growth. The main conclusions are： There is a long- term positive relation between the net finance investment of finance department development in the underground economy and the economic growth, the long- term negative relations between the underground monetary fund development and the economic growth, but the relations between the underground credit development and the economy grow are not remarkable. Therefore, we cannot, generally speaking, regard the income and the harm judgment of informal finance; we should distinguish it, and guide its healthy development, remove the harmful factors and promote the advantages.