我国外汇储备适度规模的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis to the Desired Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

自1994年外汇体制改革以来的11年间,我国外汇储备增长了近16倍,年均增幅高达28.57%。快速增长的外汇储备规模对我国宏观经济的发展是否适度的?结合我国经济发展状况,利用动态调整模型对我国自1994年以来的外汇储备规模的适度性进行测算。结果表明,我国外汇储备实际持有量向需求量进行调整的速度为0.403 7,即外汇储备需求量与年初持有量之间的缺口有40.37%的部分在年度内得到调整。

The scale of China＇s foreign exchange reserves in 2005 was about 16 times as large as that of 1994 with at an average annual growth rate of 28.57% in the past 11 years. Are the amount and the speed of foreign exchange reserves desired ones for our country？ The desired foreign exchange reserves are measured since 1994 by the dynamically adjustable model under the actual circumstance of our country. Results show that the adjustable speed is 0. 403 7, which means that a gap of 40.37% between the actual scale and the desired scale should be adjusted within one year.