火工品可靠性的模糊故障树分析与计算

Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis and Calculation of Initiating Devices' Reliability

把火工品失效看作一个由元器件的性能参数发生模糊失效的模糊系统,对火工品的可靠性进行了模糊故障树分析与计算.以某电雷管为例,通过对该电雷管各性能参数发生模糊失效的因素进行分析,给出了性能参数不满足指标要求的可能性分布及其失效概率的可能性分布;据此,建立了该电雷管失效故障树,通过计算给出了其模糊失效概率和模糊可靠度的可能性分布,对其可靠性进行了模糊评估,评估结果与实际符合较好,表明该分析方法合理、可行.

Reliability of Initiating Device is researched as a fuzzy fault system. The analytical method of fuzzy fault tree as well as the possible distribution of fuzzy failure probability and fuzzy reliability of Initiating Devices is introduced. As an example, incompetent indexes of performance parameters of the electric detonator＇s component are analyzed according to effect of these parameters on its reliability. Fuzzy fault tree and possible distribution of performance parameters abating the electric detonator and their failure probability are built up, possible distribution of the fuzzy failure probability and its fuzzy reliability are calculated and analyzed. Calculations indicate that the fuzzy reliability analytical method is feasible.