用新模型综合评价油田开发效果的探讨

Discussion on Synthetic Evaluation Development Response of Oilfield with a New Model

针对目前各种评价方法常用最大隶属度识别准则不适用性及权重确定问题,在对模糊层次评判和未确知测度模型研究的基础上,以兼顾主观偏好和客观信息的综合赋权法为依据,提出将合理反映主观认知程度的层次分析法和客观反映指标重要性的相似权二者结合起来,通过偏好系数科学合理的确定出评价指标权重,然后尝试用模糊评判模型对油藏进行评价、排序,以标准区间值识别准则代替最大隶属度识别准则,减少误判。该评价方法首次应用于某油区低渗透注水油藏的评价,取得了较好效果。与灰色聚类分析等评价模型比较,具有权重确定合理、识别合理的优点,提高了开发效果综合评价的可信度,对其他驱动类型的油藏开发效果评价具有一定的借鉴作用。

Aiming at the inapplicability of subjection degree and the question of deciding weight in all kinds of present evaluation methods and based on studying fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process and uncertained measure model, this paper puts forward that the combination of analytica hierarchy process which reflects subjective recognization degree reasonably with similar weight, which objective shows the importance of index. Favouritism coeffient will determine the weights of indexes. Trying to evaluate block with fuzzy judging model, this method is used to evaluate low-permeability water-flood reservior and the result is satisfactory. It has the excellence of scientific weight and reasonable evaluation comparing with grey clustering model. The reliability of synthetic evaluation development response of oilfeild is improved. Meanwhile,it is also used for reference to the other driving reservoir.