流脑菌苗的接种率与发病率关系的自回归分析

An Autoregression Analysis on the Relationship between Epidemic Meningitis Rates and its Immunization with Group A Vaccine

宁德市历年来流脑发病率基本呈周期性变化，但从１９８７年起发病率急剧下降。是否与该年度起我市推行流脑Ａ群菌苗的预防接种工作有关？笔者通过１９７５～１９８６年的发病率资料，用自回归分析方法，建立了一条预报方程，预测假定１９８７年以后未推行流脑菌苗预防接种的前提发病率水平。结果证实接种流脑菌苗对流脑发病率有非常显著的影响。

In recent years, the incidences of epidemic meningitis present periodicity in Ningde City, but they dropped suddenly from 1987. Does it relate to the immunization with Group A meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine from that year? This paper gave a prediction equation with autoregression analysis for the incidence series. Supposing the immunization had not been carried out in Ningde from 1987, we calculated the incidences between 1987 and 1990. The results showed that the incidences of epidemic meningitis dropped strongly and resulted from its immunization.