农业生产资料价格对农民收入增长的影响——基于动态VAR模型的解释

The Price Influence of Agriculture Production Materials on the Income of Rural Residents——Explanations Based on the VAR Model

本文在建立向量自回归模型的基础上考察1978年以来我国农业生产资料价格与农民收入增长之间的动态影响关系。并运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差的方法,得出农业生产资料价格的平稳增长与农民收入的增加存在并不矛盾的且长期稳定的正向交互响应作用的结论,从而为农业产品要素市场的宏观调控提供较准确的依据。

This paper portrays the dynamic relationship between price of agriculture production materials and income growth of rural residents from 1978 on the basis of vector auto-regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition approach. Result shows a long-term, stable and positive relation between the price of agriculture production material and income growth, and offers some beneficial evidence to adopting stable price policy of agriculture production materials.