湖南省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

THE EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMY GROWTH IN HUNAN

以湖南省为研究对象,着重探讨对外贸易与经济增长的实证关系。通过运用计量经济学中协整检验分析技术和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,对湖南省对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证检验,得出结论:对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,但出口与经济增长,进口与经济增长之间仅存在单向因果关系,即进、出口增长是经济增长的原因,而经济增长并不是进、出口增长的原因。

The paper takes Hunan as the research object, and emphasizes on discussing the experimental research of relationship between foreign trade and economy growth in Hunan. The paper tests the relationship between foreign trade and economy growth in Hunan via the technique of cointegration test and Granger- causality. The paper concludes that there is long steady relationship between foreign trade and economy growth in Hunan, but there only is unilateralism causality between import and economy growth and between export and economy growth. That is to say, import and export growth are taken as the reason of economy growth; but economy growth is taken as the reason of import and expert growth.