高速公路建设项目可靠性后评估

Reliability past-evaluation to expressway construction projects

针对当前中国高速公路建设项目评估工作的现状、存在的问题和高速公路建设项目后评估的重要性,依据可靠性工程原理,运用故障树(FTA)的方法,提出了高速公路建设项目可靠性后评估的指标体系。并给出了各指标的测度算法,进而运用最小割集法确定出全部最小割集,给出了可靠性后评估的可靠性概率组成函数和具体算法,依此构建了高速公路建设项目可靠性的后评估故障树模型。结果表明,该模型不仅能评估高速公路营运效能,而且对评估工作有积极推动作用。

To the present situation of the expressway construction projects evaluation, this paper proposed the importance of the reliability past-evaluation to the expressway construction projects, analyzed the problems existing in it at present. Based on the principle of reliability engineering and the thought of FTA, this paper established the target system and the measure algorithm of the reliability past-evaluation to the expressway construction projects, and produced minimal cut sets completely with the method of minimal cut sets, put forward the reliability past-evaluation composition function and the concrete algorithm, developed the model of the past-evaluation FTA to the expressway construction projects reliability. The results indicate that this model can accurately evaluate the operation of expressway. 1 tab, 1 fig, 9 refs.