人民币升值趋势对我国货币政策的影响分析

An Analysis on the Impact of RMB Appreciation Trend upon China's Monetary Policy

快速增长的贸易顺差和外汇储备,既促进了我国经济较快增长,同时也带来不少新问题,在这种背景下,人民币将在较长时期内保持升值趋势。考虑到各种现实因素,我国会采取小幅、渐进式的升值步伐。在我国现行结售汇制度下,央行被动投放了大量的基础货币,导致金融体系的流动性严重过剩,造成信贷失控和投资反弹,加大了经济运行和宏观调控的压力,货币政策也处于被动局面。今后,我国要加强本外币政策的协调,控制外汇储备的增长速度,合理调控货币供应总量,增强我国货币政策的主动性、科学性和有效性,真正起到以货币政策手段熨平经济波动的作用。

A rapid increase of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserve has not only promoted China＇s economy increase quickly, but also brought some new problems. Under this background, Renminbi （RMB） will keep an appreciation trend in quite a long period. In consideration of various realistic factors, China will adopt a small, gradual procedure of appreciation. In the present settlement and selling foreign exchange arrangement, a great deal of base money has been passively placed by the central bank, which has made a serious excess of the liquidity of the financial system, resulting in credit loan out of control, the pressure of economy operation and macro - regulation been enlarged, and monetary policy is also placed in a passive situation. In the future, China should strengthen the coordination of the local and foreign currency policies and control the increase speed of foreign reserve, enhance the initiative, science and efficiency of China＇s monetary policy, so that it may truely operate its function of smoothing economy fluctuation by the means of monetary policy.