1980-2004年:人民币实际汇率变动及其升值时机选择

1980-2004: Renminbi Real Exchange Rate Variety and the Choosing Opportunity of its Appreciation

实际汇率反映对具有均衡性质的购买力平价的偏离,成为判定一国汇率水平高低的标准。总体上看,人民币名义汇率和实际汇率自1980年以来基本呈持续贬值。强制结售汇引发了外汇供过于求,使人民币汇率处于低估状态。但在中国国力并不十分强大的情况下,人民币大幅升值将抑制中国出口增长、降低对外资的吸引力和增大就业压力,人民币尚不具备大幅升值条件。

The real rate of exchange reflects the deviation the purchasing power par with a balanced nature. It has become a standard to judge the practical criterior of a country＇s rate of exchange. Totally, renminbi nominal exchange and real rate of exchange since 1980 has been on the trend of depreciation. Compulsory foreign exchange settlement and selling arrangement resulted in excessive supply of foreign exchange over demand, making the level of renminbi rate of exchange undervalued. But under the circumstance of China＇s national strength not quite mighty,the renminbi appreciation will curb our export growth, lower the attraction for foreign capital and increase employment pressure, there is no condition for the renminbi to appreciate significantly.