非马氏可修系统的随机模拟

Stochastical Simulation of Non Markov Repairable System

非马尔科夫可修系统用解析方法求解，一般是很困难的。进行随机模拟原则上不存在问题。本文运用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了由三个独立部件组成的串并联系的运行，给出了各种数值指标，如可用度、可靠度、平均周期等。为了考验我们模拟方法的正确性，将其所有分布转化为指数型。模拟结果与解析结果相比，基本一致。

In general. it is very difficult to solve non Markov repairable system by anlytical method. But there is not problem for stochastical simulation in principle.This article uses Moute-Carlo method to stochasticly simulate reliability.availability.MUT and MDT of series-parallel non Markov repairable system made up by three independent components. The simulation result and analytical solution are basically identical.