基于信息熵的燃气年负荷多模型组合预测

Multi-model Combination Forecast of Annual Gas Load Based on Information Entropy

对于城市燃气年负荷预测,多模型组合预测是提高预测精度的有效方法。应用信息论中的信息熵概念对各单一模型进行综合评价,计算其在组合预测模型中的权重。实例计算证明,多模型的组合预测能综合单一模型的特点,具有良好的应用效果。

The multi-model combination forecast is an effective method for improving the forecasting precision of annual city gas load. The integrated estimation for each single model is conducted with information entropy conception. The weights of each model in the combination forecasting model are calculated. The example calculation proves that the multi-model combination forecast can synthesize the characteristics of the single models, with a better application result.