世界及其主要经济体对中国经济周期波动的影响

The Influence Analysis of World's Major Economics to Chinese Economic Cycle Undulation

通过使用计量方法分析世界经济及美国、欧盟、日本三大主要经济体的经济增长率对中国实际GDP增长率波动的影响,验证了随着改革开放的推进,中国经济正在逐步融入世界经济体系,中国经济波动与世界经济波动的相关性在逐步增强;通过格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数分析世界经济波动对中国经济周期波动造成的实际影响,从结果看,中国经济波动较三大经济体受本身波动的影响较大,美国经济增长对中国经济增长有促进作用,日本和欧盟经济增长与中国经济增长呈负相关关系。

This article analysis the influences from the whole world,the United States,the EU and Japan, three major economies＇economic growth rates to China＇s real GDP growth rate undulation through the use of measurement methods, obtain that with the advance of reform and opening up, China＇s economy is gradually integrating into the world economy system, the relevant degree of China＇s economic undulation and the world economic undulation strengthens gradually, also analysis and show that the world economics undulation has had the actual influence to the Chinese economical cycle undulation through the Granger causal test and the Pulse response function.