电源投资规模选择权的实物期权方法

Real Option Methods in Options of Scale for Electric Generation Investment

规模经济是企业降低成本的一种有效方法,在目前的电源项目投资决策中,忽略了电源建设规模灵活性选择权的价值。在考虑燃料成本变化的情况下,以建设不同规模、不同燃料的机组为研究对象,以未来成本流现值最小化为目标函数,考虑机组规模大小选择权的价值,建立了电源投资决策的数学模型,导出了基于实物期权的决策准则,改进了净现值决策准则。

Economies of scale is an effective way of reducing cost in enterprises. However, in current electric generation project investment decision, the value of the option for generation units investment of scales are overlooked. Considering fuel cost variation, this article studies generation units with different scales and energy sources, sets objective function as minimizing cash flow of future cost, considers value of flexibility option, and builds mathematical model generation investment decisionmaking, then introduces decision criteria based on real option, and improves net present value （NPV） decision criteria.