基于蒙特卡洛法的舰船装备战备完好性仿真

Readiness Simulation of Ship Equipment Based on Monte-Carlo Method

战备完好性仿真是优化装备设计过程、衡量装备综合保障工作的关键。文中利用Monte-Carlo抽样、离散事件仿真、数理统计、计算机仿真等理论建立了一种基于设备参数和使用规则的综合模型和算法。结果表明此模型不仅能定量权衡现役舰船装备综合保障工作的合理性,发现影响装备任务的关键设备,还可在论证初期规划系统的保障性设计。

The term Readiness implies a comprehensive parameter comprising not merely reliability, maintenability and supportability, but also an index of integrated logistic support. It is an important symbol scaling the practical combat capability of the fleet. The simulation of readiness is a key to optimize the processing of equipment design scaling the work of integrated logistic support. A model was set up based on the equipment parameter and using regulation appling the theory of Monte-Carlo sampling, event simulation, mathematical statistics and computer simulation. Results of its application show that the model can not only evaluate the reasoning of integrated logistic support of equipment on duty and find the key factors affecting the mission, but also layout the supportability design of the system.