中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of China’s Provincial Economic Growth Convergence

本文在巴罗与萨拉一伊一马丁新古典增长模型的基础上，提出了区域经济增长口趋同的空间计量经济分析模型框架，采用1978～2002年的截面数据，分析了空间效应和口趋同效应及其成因。中国省域经济经过改革开放25年的发展，在地理上的集聚性明显增强的同时，空间联系也在不断密切，考虑空间自相关的空间误差趋同口模型是目前研究中国省域经济增长截面趋同比较合适的模型，趋同速度约为2％，这与目前跨国截面研究的结果基本一致。地理因素和空间效应一起对经济增长和收入差距产生重要影响。

Based on the model of Barro and Salad-I-Martin neoclassical theory of growth, the paper puts forward a spatial, statistical, analytical framework of β convergence of regional economic growth, employs cross-sectional data during 1978- 2002 in China＇ s provinces and analyzes the spatial spillover effects and β convergence effect and its cause. After 25 years＇ development of China＇s provincial economies reform and opening, the spatial association becomes closer while geographical clustering obviously intensifies. The spatial error model of convergence taking into account spatial autocorrelation is the comparatively appropriate cross-sectional convergence model studying China＇s provincial economic growth. The convergence speed is about 2 percent, which is consistent with the results of multi-national convergence study at present. The geographical factors and spatial effects have great impact on economic growth and income disparity.