长江水质预测数学模型与检验

Use Mathematical Modeling to Estimate the Water Quality of Changjiang River and Verify the Conclusion

文章根据主要污染物在各个观测点的观测数据，建立了水质依靠流量、流速和降解系数的数学模型，从而达到以某站点污染监测值为依据对下一站点进行预测的目的。进而依据1995-2004年的长江水质数据．应用线性模型和Logistic模型对2004年之后十年的长江各类水质所占比例进行预测。并依照2005年的统计数据对所作预测进行检验。

According to the data of pollution observed by stations, established the mathematical model reflected water quality degradation in order to estimate the data of pollution at next station. Moreover, according to water quality data during 1995-2004, applied linear and logistic modeling to estimate the respective rate of every kind of water in the Changjiang River. Hence use the statistical data in 2005 for verifying the estimated data.