摘要
运用时间序列分析方法之一的单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)法,对全国批发和零售贸易餐饮业进行时间序列分析。分析显示,ARIMA(1,l,10)模型可以提供较准确的预测效果,可以为全国批发和零售贸易餐饮业预测提供一定的依据。
This paper applys ARIMA method which is one of the means of the time series analysis to analyse data of wholesale retail trade and catering services. It shows that the forecast of ARIMA （1, 1,10） model is exact. The ARIMA （1, 1,10） model can be used to forecast and it can provide reliable basis for the forecast of wholesale retail trade and catering services.
出处
《北京市财贸管理干部学院学报》
2006年第3期25-27,11,共4页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Finance and Commerce Management
