摘要
本文运用自回归移动平均、趋势外推和回归分析等三种不同机理的模型，对２０００年上海航空客运需求量分别作了预测。三个模型的预测结果相当接近，均在２６００－２７０Ｏ万人次之间，从而进一步印证了预测结果的可信性。此外，本文还对２０１０年上海航空客运需求量作了预测，并讨论了预测结果成立的前提，从需求与供给两方面看的可能性等等。
In this Paper, the demand of passenger volume of air transportation in Shanghai in2000 in forecasted by utilizing three types of model: ARMA, tendency forecasting and regressionanalysis. The results are very similar, between 26～27 million passengers, which prove the validity of the forecast Furthermore, forecast is also made for 2010 and its prerequisite conditions are discussed.
出处
《系统工程理论方法应用》
1996年第2期18-22,共5页
Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications
基金
国家教委留学回国人员基金
