我国农业经济增长因素实证分析（1988-2003）：要素投入与全要素生产率

The Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Growth in China （1988-2003）： Factors Input and TFP

本文运用经济增长因素分析法，从要素投入和全要素生产率的角度对1988—2003年间农业经济增长因素进行实证研究。除考虑已有文献普遍采用的中性技术进步Cobb—Douglas生产函数外，还考虑了有偏技术进步的CD函数，进而分析各投入要素对农业经济增长的影响及其变化趋势。研究表明：1988～2003年农业GDP的增长54．37％的份额是依靠投入的扩张获得，剩余45．63％是全要素生产率TFP的贡献份额。物质费用投入对农业经济增长的贡献率较高，并且对农业的作用仍在增加，劳动力、土地对农业生产的作用在下降。

This paper analyzes the factors affecting Chinese agricultural eco nomic growth during the period of 1988 to 2003 by applying Cobb-Douglas production function from two aspects： factors input and total factor productivity. We not only consider the neutral technological progress production function which was common used, but also estimate the biased technological progress C D function to reflect the changing effects of factors on agricultural growth over time. It is concluded that 54.37% growth of output owes to the expansion of factors input, and the residual 45.63% is the contribution of TFP growth. It means that the physical input in agriculture is the major contributor to agricultural growth, and its effect is still increasing. On the contrary, the impacts of Labor and Land are decreasing.