摘要
目的评价香港淘大花园住宅区隔离措施对SARS流行的影响。方法采用构筑式多元逐步回归和logistic逐步回归法评估各种因素对淘大花园SARS流行的影响。因素包括气象、时间、各类SARS病例、隔离防护措施和医院感染等。结果在消除其他因素的可能影响后,日平均气温每上升1℃,淘大花园SARS每日病例数可能下降1.2个。实施隔离措施之后,淘大花园SARS每日病例数平均可能减少9.2个。隔离措施实施之前,淘大花园SARS爆发的估计危险度是隔离措施实施后的13.7倍。结论隔离措施可能阻断淘大花园SARS的流行。
Objective To evaluate the impact of quarantine measure on SARS epidemic in mmoy Gardens＇ estate in Hong Kong. Methods A structural multiphase regression analysis and a logistic regression analysis were applied to analyse variables involved in the SARS epidemic in Amoy Gardens. These factors included meteorological condition, epidemic day, all kinds of SARS cases, quarantine measure, hospital infection and so on. Results After adjusted the factors mentioned above, the daily new cases in Amoy Gardens might decrease by an average of 1.2 patients when the air temperature increases 1℃ every day. The quarantine measure might reduce by an average of 9.2 cases occurred in Amoy Gardens daily. Before taking the quarantine measure, the estimated risk of a larger SARS epidemic in Amoy Gardens was 13.7-fold higher. Conclusions The quarantine measure may prevent SARS epidemic in Amoy Gardens＇ estate.
出处
《疾病控制杂志》
2006年第6期564-567,共4页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention
