乘积季节模型在储蓄存款预测中的应用

Application of multiply season model to deposit prediction

运用SPSS软件和SAS软件系统中的时间序列建模方法建立了我国城乡居民储蓄存款模型,并认为用最大似然估计法(ML)对结果进行短期预测,用无约束最小二乘估计法(ULS)对结果进行中长期预测,可得到较高的预测精度.

The time series method in SPSS and SAS software system was used for modeling residents＇ deposits in urban and rural areas in China. With the maximal likelihood method adopted for short-term prediction and unrestricted least square method for middle- and long-term prediction, high precision of prediction was achieved.