青杨叶锈病测报技术的研究

STUDY ON FORECASTING TECHNIQUES OF POPLAR LEAF RUST DISEASE

在小黑杨1、2、3年生苗的圃地内设置固定样地,用孢子捕捉法、期矩法、回归预测法、灰色理论预测法和数量化模型Ⅰ预测法,连续4年对病害的发生期,发生量进行预测。结果表明:病害流行与气温,相对湿度和降雨关系密切,当平均气温18～22℃、平均相对湿度65%～75%、降雨量为80 mm 以上时发病严重;利用10 d 前的病情指数和对应的气象因子,建立了预测数学模型,对病害进行短期预测,经实际检验,可靠性达72%～99%。

The fixed sampling plots were set up in the 1,2 and 3 years old Populus simonii×nigra nursery.The authors studied the occurring period for 4 years by sampling in those fixed sampling plots and using spore catch method,periodic distance method and disease grade and count method.After 4 years study,the relationship between the amount of occurrence or the prevalent of this disease and the meteorological elements were determined.It is also found that the prevalent of this disease is closely related to temperature and relative humidity and rainfall.When the mean temperature is 18～22℃,the mean relative humidity is 64%～75%,the rainfall is more than 88mm,this disease would occur seriously.Three mathematics models have been established to predict the occurrence of this desease in short period using disease index and its relative meteorological elements.After testing by practice,the authors found that the reliability of those models are 72%～99%.