川藏公路然乌-鲁朗段泥石流灾害危险性的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis on the Hazard of Debris Flows in Ranwu-Lulang Section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway

通过研究和分析川藏公路然乌-鲁朗段的泥石流灾害资料,总结了该路段的泥石流灾害在时间和空间上所呈现出的动态变化特征。泥石流灾害的时空动态变化特征表明泥石流灾害的危险性是时间和空间的函数,是动态变化的。借助于"熵"的理论和方法,引入了"地质灾害熵"的概念。在此基础上,提出了一种泥石流灾害危险性动态分析的新方法。最后,使用该方法对该路段某些大型、特大型冰川泥石流灾害的危险性进行了动态分析。分析结果与实际情况的一致性表明了这种新方法的合理性和可靠性。

By analyzing the data of debris flows in Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet highway, the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of debris flows in this section are obtained. The characteristics show that the hazard debris flows is a function of time and space and the hazard is dynamic change. The conception of ＂hazard entropy＂ is introduced in this paper with the aid of the theory of ＂entropy＂. A new approach for analyzing the dynamic hazard of debris flows is put forward on the basis of ＂geological hazard entropy＂. The approach is applied to analyze the dynamic hazard of some large-scale or oversize glacier debris flows in the section. The coincidence of the analyzing results and the facts show that the new approach is logical and reliable.