基于层次灰色模型的铁路技术创新绩效综合评价

Synthetic evaluation of technological innovation performance of railway on the basis of the Hierarchy Grey Model

运用技术创新基本理论,结合铁路技术创新实际,从效益(经济、社会)增长、市场状态(市场份额、市场营销)改善和创新主体素质(技术装备水平、管理水平)提高3个方面建立了评价铁路技术创新绩效的多级指标体系。将层次分析法(AHP)和灰色系统理论结合起来建立了层次灰色评价模型(HGM),运用该模型对铁路技术创新绩效分别从整体和分项进行了综合评价,得出:铁路技术创新绩效绩优度为“一般”,其主要原因在于铁路运输市场状态改善中市场份额扩大程度较低。实证分析结果表明:改进层次灰色评价法(层次灰色评价模型)为一种评价铁路技术创新绩效的有效方法。

By applying the basic theories of technological innovation to the reality of the railway, the multistage index system of appraising technological innovation performance of the railway was set up from three respects： benefit （economy, society） increase, market state （market share, marketing） improvement and the subject quality （technical equipment , management level ） strengthening. Hierarchy Grey Model （HGM） was put forward through combining Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） and Grey Systematic Theory together, and the technological innovation performance of the railway was evaluated from the whole and parts by using the model. The following conclusion is gotten： The good performance degree of the railway technological innovation performance is ＂ generally ＂, and the main reason is a lower degree of market share enlargement. The improved method of the HGM can be regarded as a kind of ideal appraisal method.