黄河口近期演变规律及发展趋势预测

Present Evolution Law and Development Trend Prediction of the Yellow River Estuary

本文分析了河口近期三条流路的演变规律，阐明了清水沟河道发育特点、“洪冲枯淤”规律及河口淤积延伸反馈影响的范围。据入海水沙变化趋势，河口延伸速率将减缓，在加强河口治理条件下，预测现河道自然出汊可能性很小，流路寿命将更加延长。

he paper analysed the evolution law of the three flow courses in the Yellow River estuary in the near future,expounded the developing characteristics of Qingshuigou river channel,the law of 'erosion in flood,and siltation during dry season',and the feedback influence range of river mouth siltation. According to the trend of water and sediment flow into the sea,the Yellow River mouth extending rate will be getting reduced. Under the condition of strengthening the harnessing the estuary, it is estimated that the present channel is with little probability of seperating into more branches,and the course will be kept for long period.