黄河下游防洪减灾效益分析

Benefit Analysis of Flood Protection and Disaster Deletion in the Yellow River

由于黄河多泥沙的特性和特殊的自然条件，黄河下游河道在历史上决口频繁。人民治黄５０年来，黄河下游的防洪减灾措施确保了黄淮海大平原的安全．取得了巨大的社会经济效益。采用“实际发生年法”对黄河下游防洪减灾效益进行了分析。结果表明，人民治黄以来，黄河下游防洪工程减免大堤决口、减少滩地淹没、减少凌汛决口及减少河道淤积所取得的直接经济效益分别为３４００．１、６５．８、１２０．０、４５．０亿元。由于黄河问题的复杂性．其防洪减灾效益分析中的许多特殊问题尚待进一步研究。

Because the Yellow River is characterized with overloaded sediment and special natural conditions,it broke dykes frequently in the lower reaches in past history. Since the people's harnessing the river,the safety of the lower reaches plains is guaranteed through the flood protection and disaster deletion measures in the lower Yellow River,and significant social and economic benefits have been obtained. The flood protection and disaster deletion effects is analyzed in the paper through applying the 'yearly actual occuring method ',and the results show that since the people's harnessing the river there has been the direct economic benefit of RMB 340, 010 million, 6, 580 million, 12, 000 million and 4,500 million respectively in deducting dyke breaking in the lower Yellow River,reducing the loss of farmland being inundated,deducting dyke breaking in ice flood,and reducing siltation in river channel' Because of the complex nature of the Yellow River problem,it is needed to take further study on its many special issues about benefit analysis of flood protection and disaster deletion.