基于SPA模型的煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价

Application of risk evaluation in coalmine gas hazard based on model of SPA

根据危险源理论和三类危险源的观点,采用集对分析(SPA)方法,进行了安全—事故集对的同异反分析,指出应采取措施控制不确定项,尤其要控制其中的第二类、第三类危险源才能使系统趋于安全状态;同时建立了煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价模型,通过联系度的计算得出煤矿瓦斯的安全等级。研究表明,将集对分析方法应用于某煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价,计算简单,结果较为精确、可靠,为不确定系统的评价提供了一条新思路。

The present paper is concerned with an analysis and a model of the three main categories of hazards-involving factors conceming the coalmining practice. As is known, the root of coal.mining accidents is the threat of coalmine gas and the inability of human control over the different factors leading to such kinds of the mining hazards. Numerous as the studies in this way there may be few of them are done firmly based on the basis of the sound hazard theory analysis. Seeing the extreme importance of the theoretical analysis of the hazards of this nature, first of all, the paper has introduced the general approach to the classification of such hazards into three types based on the theory of set pair analysis, then investigated and compared the congruity, discrepancy and contrary trends of the safety-accident set pairs by way of SPA, pointing out that measures should be taken to control all the hazard factors, particularly, the second and the third to keep coalmining system safe and secure. Thirdly, a simulated model of gas hazards evaluation in coalmining practice has been established to secure the safety grade of the gas hazard by calculating and determining the connection degrees. In the given model, the evaluating index system herein provided is quite different from others with the second and the third categories of hazard indexes included. As a result, the whole evaluation process or practice can be made much more comprehensive and desirable. Last of all, a sample for practical use of the model has been given to show how to apply the model properly. Thus, the whole study demonstrates that the application of the SPA method to the practical gas hazard evaluation in coalmine production is simple, convenient and effective with its results being reliable, which is expected to offer a new perspective and prospect for such evaluation unascertained systems.