中国汽车领域石油替代的可能性——现状、政策和长期展望

Potential for Use of Oil Alternatives in China's Automotive Sector——Status quo,policies and outlook

进入高油价时代,汽车领域的石油替代在世界范围内得到重视。作为一个汽车化进程快速发展的国家,中国汽车领域的石油替代燃料的发展对中国和世界都有巨大的影响。文章以各种替代燃料——LPG、CNG、LNG、乙醇、甲醇、DME(二甲醚)、生物柴油、CTL(煤炭液化),以及电动汽车、混合动力汽车、燃料电池汽车为分析对象,介绍和分析了中国政府对于各种替代燃料的态度、政策以及各种替代燃料的普及现状,并从能源供给的安全性、替代燃料的经济性、大气环境性能(尾气排放)、综合效率(能源效率和CO2排放量)以及汽车性能五个方面就中国2030年石油替代燃料普及的可能性进行了分析。分析结果显示,在各种汽车替代燃料中,煤炭液化(直接液化>间接液化)和生物燃料是最有希望的两种替代燃料。如果在2030年这两种燃料的产量能够分别达到2000万吨,届时中国汽车所需的石油消费量将可以从1.4亿吨下降至1.0亿吨。同时,石油替代项目与能源资源、土地资源、水资源、生态和环境等问题都密切相关,所以应该始终将能源问题放在全局中通盘考虑。

The continued oil price spike worldwide re-ignites concern over the substitutability of oil as an automotive fuel. China is no exception to this concern, what with the world's fastest-growing market for cars whose choice of automotive fuel has a big impact on the global oil market. With LPG, CNG, LNG, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel oil and CTL as alternative fuels, and electric, hybrid and fuel cell cars as possible alternatives to the conventional internal combustion engine vehicle, a detailed analysis is given here of the Chinese Government's view of alternative fuels, its corresponding policies and overall alternative fuel use in China. The analysis is followed by a close look at the possibility of widespread use of alternative fuels in the country by 2030 from the perspectives of energy supply, economic feasibility, exhaust emissions, overall efficiency (in terms of energy efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions), and vehicle performance. The findings show that CTL (direct liquidation preferred over indirect liquidation) and bio-fuel are the most promising among the alternative Tfuels. If the production of each of these two fuels reached 20 million tons by 2030, the oil consumed annually by Chinese cars would drop from 140 million to 100 million tons. But a holistic perspective needs to be kept throughout the process, by being mindful that fuel substitution in cars has a big impact on energy, land and water resource availability and quality as well as on the ecosystem and environment.