我国货币流通速度的分析

本文首先把GDP与M2的比值定义为货币流通速度,计算出1993～2005年我国货币流通速度,该数据表明我国货币流通速度有减慢的趋势,这反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2006～2007年我国GDP和货币流通速度,从而推算出2006年至2007年我国广义货币供应量(M2)分别是324542.6亿元和341568.6亿元左右,这对我国数量型货币政策的制定具有一定的参考价值。

In this paper , the specific value of the GDP and m2 as the money flow speed is defined first, then the curve of the money flow speed of our country 1993 -2005 years is drawn that curve cnucleates our country money flow speed has already reduced slow trend, this reflected an our country a system problem. Secondly, the our country GDP and the money flow speed for 2006- 2007 yeats is predicted by BP algorithm with momentum term and self- correcting study rate, reckonning for 2006 - 2007 years the currency supply quantity（m2） of the our country, this has certain reference value to the quantity type the establishment of monetary policy of the our country.