我国财政政策和货币政策的相对有效性实证分析

The Evidence Analysis of the Relative Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in China

利用圣路易斯模型构建新的经验性检验方程,对我国财政政策和货币政策的相对有效性进行实证检验,结果表明,我国货币供给的长期总乘数及动态乘数相对较大,进而认为我国货币政策较之财政政策无论在短期亦或长期都是相对有效的;但负的政府支出乘数折射出我国宏观调控的政策搭配仍不协调,市场机制尚不完善。

This paper mainly discusses the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in China. The anthor takes the government expenditure and the currency supply as exogenous variables, and take the real GDP as explained variable to simulate to determine their corresponding dynamic multiplicator and the long-term total multiplicator.The result indicates the long-term total multiplicator of government expenditure is less than the one of the currency supplies and the dynamic multiplicator of currency supplies is also more .Therefore,we can tell monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy not only in the short term but also in the long term.