当前中东局势及中国与中东关系

Current Situation in the Middle East and Sino-Middle East Relations

近年来,中东局势持续动荡,出现了一些新的特点和趋势,即多点地区冲突同时爆发,互相呼应,互相影响;地区政治力量出现新的消长变化。政治伊斯兰势力上升,传统大国地位下降;美国对中东新战略严重受挫。在可预测的未来,中东热点问题将持续成为地区动荡之源。其中伊拉克政局的走向将对未来中东形势的发展产生重要影响。伊斯兰势力与世俗政权之间对权力与影响力的争夺将更趋激烈,地区内激进势力将更趋活跃,极端思潮蔓延,并有向地区外扩展的趋势。同时,美国在中东影响力下降,难以完成对中东地区进行民主改造的使命。国际和中东形势的变化,使中国和中东国家分别面临新的不同的国际环境,对中东和阿拉伯国家的内政、外交产生深刻影响,也给中国带来新的机遇和挑战。

The situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more unstable in recent years, and such new features and trends are appearing: several conflicts in different regions broke out at the same time, and affected each other, and regional political powers grew and declined one another . Political Islam power is growing, and traditional power is declining. America’s Middle East strategy is facing with difficulty. The future principal focus will become the origin of turmoil in the Middle East. One main focus will be Iraq issue, and the political situation there could affect the future regional situation in the Middle East. The struggle between the Islamic and secular forces is becoming more acute, and the radical force will be more active, and the radical ideology is stretching out off the Middle East. At the Same time, the effect of U.S.’s role is declining in the Middle East. The Middle East countries can hardly finish the task of democratization by themselves for the shortage of political resources what they can use. Both China and the Middle East countries are facing with changing international situation, their policies in the Middle East and Arab world will confronted with both new opportunities and challenges.