中国“未富先老”了吗?

Does China Get Old before Getting Rich?

This issue of Population and Development Forum brings together contrasting views and arguments on China’s population ageing. China is an ageing society, the population of China is and will be rapidly ageing now and in the next few decades. "Getting old before getting rich" has been cited extensively as a typical feature of ageing in China. Recently Professor Li Jianmin, from Institute of Population and Development Studies at Nankai University has challenged this widely held view. He distinguishes between an ageing society and an aged society. Looking at the proportion of the old people, China’s age structure could be classified into "old" type. However, this does not necessarily mean China becomes an aged society when examining the impact of ageing on socio-economic development. China’s demographic window of opportunity would close by 2030, and the total dependency ratio will be declining in the next decade, down to 38 in 2010, and then gradually rising to 50 in 2030. An international comparison shows that Western European countries were not economically more developed than China when reaching old type population structure. Thus today and in the next 30 years, China is not "getting old before getting rich". China is very likely getting rich when getting old.

This issue of Population and Development Forum brings together contrasting views and arguments on China＇ s population ageing. China is an ageing society, the population of China is and will be rapidly ageing now and in the next few decades. ＂Getting old before getting rich＂ has been cited extensively as a typical feature of ageing in China. Recently Professor Li Jianmin, from Institute of Population and Development Studies at Nankai University has challenged this widely held view. He distinguishes between an ageing society and an aged society. Looking at the proportion of the old people, China＇ s age structure could be classified into ＂old＂ type. However, this does not necessarily mean China becomes an aged society when examining the impact of ageing on socio - economic development. China＇s demographic window of opportunity would close by 2030, and the total dependency ratio will be declining in the next decade, down to 38 in 2010, and then gradually rising to 50 in 2030. An international comparison shows that Western European countries were not economically more developed than China when reaching old type population structure. Thus today and in the next 30 years, China is not ＂getting old before getting rich＂. China is very likely getting rich when getting old. Professor Du Peng, from Center for Population and Development Studies at People＇ s University of China, convincingly argues that ＂getting old before getting rich＂ is a central feature of population ageing in China. Demographic and economic data show China is old but is not rich. While there is incomparability in economic development between China and the Western European countries when reaching old type population, China is getting old before getting rich when compared to America and Japan that have recently become old. This is more apparent when Chi- na is compared to South Korea, the developing countries as a whole and the world average. He suggests, however, situation be changing, and China would be rich by 2010 when also old. The claim ＂getting old before getting rich＂ has important implications. We are facing the great challenge of population ageing, and we need to formulate programs and policies following the national conditions to deal with the ageing problem.