中国能源生产的误差修正模型

THE ERROR CORRECTION MODELS OF CHINA ENERGY PRODUCTION

本文基于协整理论研究了1978-2004年间中国各能源产量与GDP之间的协整关系，构建了中国各能源生产与GDP之间的误差修正模型，并对中国能源短期产量状况做出预测。预测结果表明：ECM模型预测的2005年结果与该年统计值误差很小，其中煤炭误差率为0．45％，石油为0．74％，天然气为6．20％；根据2005年统计值，利用模型进行滚动预测得出2006年煤炭、石油、天然气的预测值分别为：21亿t、1．85亿t、566．8亿m^3。

Based on the theory of co--integration, we make a study of the relationships between china energies production and GDP from 1978 to 2004, establish their error correction models, then make a pre diction of short energy production with these models. The result indicates： The prediction production of ECM models is very close to actual production of 2005 , the error rate of coal is 0.45%, oil 0.74%, gas 6.2 % ; According to actual production of 2005, we make a prediction of energies production in 2006, the production of coal is 2.1billion ton , oil 1850 million ton, gas 56.68 billion cubic meter.