城镇企业养老保险隐性债务规模及未来偿付能力精算分析

隐性养老金债务产生的主要原因是现收现付制度下实行待遇预定型养老金计划多年累积形成的。隐性养老金债务的大小主要取决于养老保险覆盖面、退休人数、年龄结构、养老金给付水平、退休年龄以及预定利率等因素。选择隐性债务的总精算公式和分支出项目的未来隐性债务精算模型，对山东省养老金未来偿付能力殛隐性债务进行预测，从山东省的情况来看，由于“老人”和“中人”隐性债务规模较大，未来十几年将会出现当年收不抵支的现象，偿付能力逐渐减弱，年末滚动结余难以弥补当年收支差额，缺口越来越大。由此可见，在我国进一步建立和完善养老金缴费和管理制度迫在眉睫，应做实“个人账户”，强化基金征缴与监管，探索基金增值新途径。

Implicit pension debt originates from many years implementation of the defined - benefit pension scheme under the pay-as-you-go system. The size of implicit pension debt depends on the coverage of the urban and township pension insurance, the number of retirees, age structure of participants, level of pension payment, retirement age and guaranteed interest rate, etc. The author applied a future implicit debt actuarial model to project future solvency of the pension scheme of Shandong province and the size of its implicit debt. The Shandong case shows that, due to the large implicit pension debt of ＂old people＂ and ＂middle-aged people＂, the contribution received in a certain year will fall short of the payout in the future 10 years or longer. The weakening solvency will lead to expanding shortfall when the year-end rolled-over balance fails to make up for the difference between receipt and payout of the year. Therefore it is urgent for China to further improve the pension contribution and management system. Individual accounts should be well-managed, contribution receipt and supervision should be strengthened, and new route should be explored fore pension fund appreciation.