大坝工作性态的模糊可拓评估模型及应用

Assessment model of dam behavior with fuzzy extension theory and its application

对大坝工作性态评估的研究主要包括评估指标体系的构建、评估指标度量方法和综合评估工程方法等3个方面的内容。依据大坝工作性态评估信息物元系统,应用可拓理论,基于多因素优化融合的思想,通过物元变换建立了大坝工作性态评估的模糊物元模型。该模型综合考虑了地质资料、数值分析计算成果以及监测数据等多源信息,实现了对大坝工作性态的定性与定量集成描述,结合其随时间的变化趋势分析,可以完成三维动态评估大坝工作性态的目标。另外对物元特征权重和特征值权重拟定方法进行了研究。最后对某混凝土重力坝的工作性态进行了评估,得出该工程整体安全度介于正常与基本正常之间的结论,该结论较符合实际情况。

The system of evaluation index, methods nonnalizing index values and assessment methods are the key problems on dam behavior evaluation. The information matter-element system was built to assess dam behavior, Based on the thought of multi-index fusion, fuzzy matter-element model evaluating dam behavior was constructed by matter-element transform. This model can process comprehensively geological data, results of numerical analysis, measurement data, experiential knowledge, and so on. Dam behavior can be described by the qualitative and quantitative manners, According to the development trend of quantitative results, dam behavior can be expressed dynamically with three dimensional pattern. The combined results of weights of matter-element characteristic and weights of characteristic value can be obtained by use of optimization algorithm. As an example, the proposed method was used to assess a concrete dam. The result shows that the global safety can be ranged between normal and basically normal, The numerical example shows that the proposed method is feasible and effective, and the evaluation results are reasonable.